Methodology · how the record is made
Market data we’ve captured, not a census of the chain. Every number on this site shows its N and its date. No “safe” badge ever appears. Realized outcomes replace predictions.
Every pump.fun launch we observe from creation to a terminal outcome — 2,317,773 so far — and Robinhood Chain launches from the launchpad factories we watch there (744,148).
| label | means |
|---|---|
| rugged | liquidity pulled by the creator side; the book could not be exited |
| died | bled to zero without a pull |
| survived / active | still trading, no terminal outcome yet |
| graduated | completed the curve — the complete byte on-chain, not the launchpad’s API |
A small number of launches with conflicting reads sit in a published quarantine file rather than being silently dropped.
RED / AMBER / GREEN is written the moment we first see a launch, hash-chained, and never edited. The outcome is written next to it when it lands. The scoreboard shows all of them, including the ones we got wrong.
The rug rate counts the calls in a band that rugged. The failure rate counts rugs and quiet deaths together. Both use the same denominator — every call in that band with an outcome. They are different numbers and the scoreboard gives each its own column.
Robinhood Chain figures cover the 5 launchpads we capture on that chain — 221,785 launches in total, mostly PonsLaunch (57%, dormant since 12 Aug 2026) and Launch Factory (27%). hood.fun is 0.2% of it. Market data we’ve captured, not a census of the chain.
Every RH figure on this site used to be footnoted “hood.fun’s fee-free launch period”. That was a wrong attribution, not a caveat: hood.fun is a fraction of a percent of what we capture. The table is generated from the capture, so this page and the footnote cannot disagree again.
Loading the census…
Uniswap v3 chain-wide is not watched. A coin that settles there — Sushi V3, for one — has no record here at all. That is a gap in what we capture, not a finding about the coin.
A creator is marked known_bad when BOTH of these are true, and only then: at least 5 of their launches have reached a terminal outcome, AND their rug rate is at least 1.5× the chain baseline rug rate. Nothing else feeds it — not the number of wallets around a launch, not how fast anything happened, not a score.
The baseline is the census rug rate: 30.1% across every labelled pump.fun launch we have captured, so the line today sits at 45.2%. Both move when the census moves and both are published in the record’s metadata with the date they were computed.
Across attributed launches only — the ones we can tie to a creator — the rug rate is 68.6%. That is the fairer comparator for one creator’s own rate, because a rug leaves a signed transaction while a quiet death leaves the dev anonymous. It is carried on every record and it is not what the threshold uses: 1.5× it is above 100%, and a rule that can never fire is not a rule.
A creator with four resolved launches, all of them rugs, is not marked. That is the floor doing its job at a denominator too small to rate, not an opinion about them. A creator we hold no record for returns nothing at all rather than a clean answer — absence is not innocence. There is no state in this system that means safe.
The same rule and the same two numbers come back on every
call to /v1/flag and /api/flag, in a known_bad_basis
field, so a bot gets the rule with the answer instead of having to trust this page.