What actually happened to the wallets you copy

Today's autopsy · 2026-08-03

$ANSEM climbed to 84.9 SOL over 3m 15s. It was gone 3s later.

The 12 wallets that bought first had already been early on 532 launches. 485 rugged.

Subject: DQrH...pump (mint)
Selected by: one named coin, start to finish
Corpus: 176,573 of 664,949 launches we followed ended in a rug

A finished case, published free and in full. Drawn from cases that reached a final outcome in the last 30 days (dated by when the outcome was recorded, not when the coin launched). We picked it as the rugged coin whose first buyers already had the worst record.

Check a coin yourself Go to this coin

01 · the null result

Deeper early liquidity does not protect you.

Scanners sell one signal: more early liquidity = safer. Across a 12.3× span of real SOL at the 5-second mark, failure stays flat — lowest at band 2, highest at band 4. No gradient. The signal is noise. These bands are pump.fun; Robinhood Chain has no bonding curve to bucket, yet its aggregate failure lands in the same place — 98.57% of 146,037 resolved.

75.06%

AGGREGATE RUG RATE · N=100,248

87–93%

FAILED (RUG+DIED) · ALL 5 BANDS

12.3×

LIQUIDITY SPAN · 0.88→10.90 SOL

the "deeper = safer" curve every scanner implies — illustrative, not data

x-axis: real SOL in the bonding curve at 5s · y-axis untruncated 0–100

Every scanner sells the dotted line. The bars are the data.

NULL RESULT — failure is non-monotonic and flat. Min band 2 (87.26%), max band 4 (92.63%). Higher early liquidity buys no protection.

N = 100,248bonding-curve traded population

bucket edges (real-SOL): 0.8826 | 2.4691 | 5.6 | 10.896 · bars = failed % (rug+died); aggregate rug within this population 75.06% · census 664,949

02 · the other chain

Robinhood Chain: same test, a live gradient.

The identical experiment on Robinhood Chain — five equal-count bands by real ETH on the pool at the 5-second mark, across the 24,220 coins that reached the 0.3 ETH floor. Failure does not stay flat here. It climbs every band, and the rug share climbs with it — 55% to 91%. More early liquidity does not buy safety; it buys a higher chance of being actively rugged.

73.08%

AGGREGATE RUG · N=24,220

86–94%

FAILED (RUG+DIED) ACROSS BANDS

55 → 91%

RUG SHARE · LOWEST TO HIGHEST BAND

rugged — liquidity pulled died — faded out the “deeper = safer” curve scanners imply

x-axis: real ETH on the pool at 5s · equal-count bands · y-axis untruncated 0–100 · red = rug share, faded = quiet death

Same dotted line every scanner sells. On Robinhood Chain the data climbs to meet it.

GRADIENT RESULT — failure is monotonic and the rug share runs 55%→91% across the liquidity span. Higher early ETH is a rug tell, not a shield. Of 135,869 Robinhood Chain launches, 61,185 never reached the 0.3 ETH floor and died on arrival.

N = 24,220early-liquidity traded population

bucket edges (real-ETH): 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.262 | 0.6016 · bars = failed % (rug+died), red = rug share; aggregate rug within this population 73.08% · RH census 166,715

measured, not guessed

What actually happens to a pump.fun token.

Across 664,949 pump.fun launches, each tracked to a recorded outcome. 96.15% rugged or died. 66% never even cleared a 2-SOL peak; every one of those died.

pump.fun · SolanaRobinhood Chain

Of the 294,100 coins with full trade-level labels (the only ones that carry a realized return), the share that ever reached —

Hit +50%47.5%

Hit +100%29.0%

Hit +300%10.5%

Sellable at a profit ⓘ22.6%

On Robinhood Chain, the same replay over the 10,861 launches that recorded pool depth — what a 1 ETH position actually returns at the peak —

Median exit returns16.6%

Got principal back15.9%

On paper the median coin peaked at 1.56x. Sold into the real pool at that same peak, it returned 16.6% — a 9.4x gap between the chart and the till.
n = 10,861 of 99,296 labelled RH launches: the only ones with pool reserves recorded. That subset is 2.2x deeper than the chain at 0.3 ETH and 2.5x more rugged, so it is the actively-traded end — the figures above are a floor, and the chain-wide reality is worse.
Bag size 1 ETH here vs 5 SOL for the pump.fun bars: different size, different currency, not a like-for-like race. RH pools are Uniswap v3; depth is approximated as x·y=k over total reserves, so the fill is indicative rather than exact.

Of all 664,949 launches: 0.140% ever graduated. 84.5% never doubled.

On Robinhood Chain (166,715 launches, 146,037 resolved): 83.86% died · 14.71% rugged · 1.43% survived · 0 graduated — there is no bonding curve to graduate from. 98.57% of every resolved launch failed; 20,678 are still trading.

Two populations, both stated, never blended. The 664,949-launch census carries a recorded outcome for every coin. The bars above are the 294,100 coins with full trade-level labels — the only subset with a realized return — and all four bars, including liquidity, are computed over that same 294,100. "Sellable at a profit" = peak REAL liquidity ≥ 10 SOL: enough depth for a modest exit. Every n is disclosed. This is the layer risk-scanners never measure.

Outcomes labeled 2026-08-01, covering all 664,949 pump.fun launches we have captured. Live scans are real-time.

the difference

Risk scores tell you now. We tell you what happened.

Every scanner grades a token in the present tense. None of them carry the outcome. Forward-labeled history is the asset nobody else publishes.

Point-in-time risk scanners

"This creator has rugged before."

A present-tense flag. Useful, binary, and already free from several funded tools.

creator_risk: HIGH ⚠
mint_authority: revoked
flag: prior_rug = true

GROUNDTRUTH outcome data

A rap sheet, not a flag.

The recorded track record — counts, medians, timings — pulled from outcomes already labeled in the capture.

Every launch, every recorded outcome, the median time-to-rug, and the operator's wallet pool — the full track record, not a binary flag.
GdRSPexhxbQz5H2zFQrNN2BAZUqEjAULBigTPvQ6oDMP — paste it below for its live numbers — or paste a Robinhood Chain 0x address for its ETH-denominated record.

Compared against the attributed-launch baseline of 64.0% — the share of launches we can attribute to a creator that ended in a rug (N=166,373 across 64,195 creators). Not the 27% figure for all 664,949 launches: 66% of those never clear a 2-SOL peak and rug at 0.0% — they cannot rug, they die. We attribute rugs more easily than quiet deaths (a pulled liquidity leaves a signed transaction; a token that fades leaves its dev anonymous), so attributed creator rug rates likely run somewhat high — we flag the bias rather than hide it.

try it

Paste a coin — or a wallet.

GROUNDTRUTH replays what actually happened to a pump.fun or Robinhood Chain coin — not the chart's best case, but what you could really have sold into. Paste a coin for its autopsy, or a wallet for its rap sheet.

Drop a token contract to see who's holding it right now: holder concentration, snipers still in, how many exits before rugss and fast exits recorded wallets are already in front of you — plus the launcher's rug history. Or drop a wallet address to pull its rap sheet.

How to read a card ▾

Realized exit — what you'd actually net selling into real liquidity, not the chart price.

Peak real liquidity — the SOL (or ETH on Robinhood Chain) truly available to sell into at the coin's deepest.

Verdict — the recorded outcome: rugged, bled out, graduated, or survived. Robinhood Chain has no graduation — there, survived is the made-it class.

New here? Start with these ▾

What is a rug? The people who launched a coin take the money out of it. Everyone still holding is left with a token nobody will buy. It is not a crash — it is a withdrawal, and it leaves a signed transaction on the chain with somebody's wallet on it.

Why isn't deep liquidity safe? Liquidity is how much real money sits behind a coin. More of it means you can sell without crushing the price — and it also means there is more worth taking. Depth tells you the size of the pot. It never tells you who is guarding it.

What is a bonding curve? The launch mechanism these coins use. Price rises automatically as people buy and falls as they sell, with no order book and no market maker. It is why a coin can climb and vanish inside a few minutes.

Why look at coins that already ended? Because their story is finished. A coin that is over can be checked against what really happened to the people in it. A live one is still a guess. The settled record is what makes the pattern visible at all.

groundtruth.scan() no scan yet

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pump.fun · Solana

◆ GROUNDTRUTH only — not on other scanners

Standard checks

Mint authority—

Freeze authority—

Top-10 hold—

Dev holding—

Market cap—

Liquidity—

Snipers still in—

Bundled buys—

Token age—

Real holders ⓘ—

Curve status—

// paste a Solana or Robinhood Chain (0x) coin or wallet above to run a live scan

— —

pump.fun · Solana rugs recorded fast exits recorded insider-linked

SOL balance—

Token holdings—

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Every number here shows how many launches it’s based on. We rate other people’s safety claims — we don’t make our own. There is no green “safe” badge anywhere on GROUNDTRUTH, and there never will be.

Liquidity isn't safety. It's bait.