Every scanner sells liquidity depth as a safety signal. Across 549,752 pump.fun launches, it isn't one — 96.75% rugged or died. Split the coins that actually traded into five bands over a 12.3× liquidity span and failure barely moves: 87-93% at every level. And on Robinhood Chain, a different chain with a different launch mechanic, it's 98.26% of 120,660 resolved — near-identical. Deeper liquidity doesn't make a token safer; it makes it worth rugging. This isn't a Solana quirk — it's structural to the launchpad.
Split the 100,248 pump.fun coins that actually traded into five bands by early bonding liquidity, read at 5 seconds — a 12.3× span, from under 0.88 SOL to over 10.90 SOL. The failure rate: 91.76%, 87.26%, 88.54%, 92.63%, 89.86%. It barely moves, and it isn't even monotonic.
Liquidity does buy something — a 10.7× better shot at graduating, 0.19% to 2.03%. It buys no protection at all. Deep liquidity doesn't make a token safe. It makes it worth rugging. That is the signal every other scanner is selling you.
Scanners sell one signal: more early liquidity = safer. Across a 12.3× span of real SOL at the 5-second mark, failure stays flat — lowest at band 2, highest at band 4. No gradient. The signal is noise. These bands are pump.fun; Robinhood Chain has no bonding curve to bucket, yet its aggregate failure lands in the same place — 98.26% of 120,660 resolved.
The identical experiment on Robinhood Chain — five equal-count bands by real ETH on the pool at the 5-second mark, across the 24,220 coins that reached the 0.3 ETH floor. Failure does not stay flat here. It climbs every band, and the rug share climbs with it — 55% to 91%. More early liquidity does not buy safety; it buys a higher chance of being actively rugged.
Across 549,752 pump.fun launches, each tracked to a recorded outcome. 96.75% rugged or died. 66% never even cleared a 2-SOL peak; every one of those died.
Of all 549,752 launches: 0.132% ever graduated. 84.5% never doubled.
On Robinhood Chain (129,108 launches, 120,660 resolved): 81.85% died · 16.54% rugged · 1.61% survived · 0 graduated — there is no bonding curve to graduate from. 98.26% of every resolved launch failed; 18,423 are still trading.
Two populations, both stated, never blended. The 549,752-launch census carries a recorded outcome for every coin. The bars above are the 294,100 coins with full trade-level labels — the only subset with a realized return — and all four bars, including liquidity, are computed over that same 294,100. "Sellable at a profit" = peak REAL liquidity ≥ 10 SOL: enough depth for a modest exit. Every n is disclosed. This is the layer risk-scanners never measure.
Outcomes labeled in a single pass on 2026-07-20, covering all 549,752 launches from 2026-06-15 through 2026-07-20. Live scans are real-time.
Every scanner grades a token in the present tense. None of them carry the outcome. Forward-labeled history is the asset nobody else publishes.
A present-tense flag. Useful, binary, and already free from several funded tools.
The recorded track record — counts, medians, timings — pulled from outcomes already labeled in the capture.
Compared against the creator-average baseline of 63.9% — the rug rate across every launch we can attribute to a creator (N=137,464 across 55,289 creators). Not the 27% figure for all 549,752 launches: 66% of those never clear a 2-SOL peak and rug at 0.0% — they cannot rug, they die. We attribute rugs more easily than quiet deaths (a pulled liquidity leaves a signed transaction; a token that fades leaves its dev anonymous), so attributed creator rug rates likely run somewhat high — we flag the bias rather than hide it.
At launch, a swarm of wallets buys in the first blocks — organic demand, or so it reads. Strip the masks and it collapses to a handful of sock-puppets run by one operator — whose launch history we already hold.
GROUNDTRUTH replays what actually happened to a pump.fun or Robinhood Chain coin — not the chart's best case, but what you could really have sold into. Paste a coin for its autopsy, or a wallet for its rap sheet.
Drop a token contract to see who's holding it right now: holder concentration, snipers still in, how many rug insiders and flagged fast-exit wallets are already in front of you — plus the launcher's rug history. Or drop a wallet address to pull its rap sheet.
Realized exit — what you'd actually net selling into real liquidity, not the chart price.
Peak real liquidity — the SOL (or ETH on Robinhood Chain) truly available to sell into at the coin's deepest.
Verdict — the recorded outcome: rugged, bled out, graduated, or survived. Robinhood Chain has no graduation — there, survived is the made-it class.
Compared against the creator-average baseline of 63.9% — the rug rate across every launch we can attribute to a creator (N=137,464 across 55,289 creators). Not the 27% figure for all 549,752 launches: 66% of those never clear a 2-SOL peak and rug at 0.0% — they cannot rug, they die. We attribute rugs more easily than quiet deaths (a pulled liquidity leaves a signed transaction; a token that fades leaves its dev anonymous), so attributed creator rug rates likely run somewhat high — we flag the bias rather than hide it.
// paste a Solana or Robinhood Chain (0x) coin or wallet above to run a live scan
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